15 Aug 2022 12:23:38
Some morning observations and musings - probably wildly off the mark.

If the Glazer family stick together no one can simply come in and buy the club. If there were to be a fracture caused by competing family interests, a sale might become more appealing. The Glazer family shareholding, while still controlling, is now down to 69%.

Richard Arnold pretty much admitted that at the current time funds are not available for OT or training ground improvements. It's pretty clear transfer funds are very limited too. They need new investment. Where's that going to come from? They either have to issue new shares or enter into more debt. To acquire enough new capital (£500m+) to do all the things they've promised they risk losing control of the club. Given how incompetent they have been one wonders at what price a bank will underwrite more fixed debt.

I really don't see how our financial situation improves with the Glazers in control. The club is not particularly profitable any more, the interest on another £500m in debt will make it less so, and without success on the field and no marketing stars in the squad, one might assume that sponsorship deals will be on the decline.

Obviously, if EtH can turn the ship around it will be a different story, but can he do that with these players? It's looking like he'll need to be a miracle worker.

As for new owners I think there are probably a number of potential candidates who can put together consortia to acquire the club without the burden of excessive bank debt while making a commitment to invest further in the facilities and squad. How long did it take Chelsea to find a buyer?

My fear is that interested parties will wait on the sidelines expecting the Glazers to further destroy the value of the club to the point where they're forced to sell. If the season carries on like this and we're in the relegation zone, I have a hunch someone will make a significant offer before the end of the season.

They'll wait, because they will want to start from a point of very low expectations so they don't get blamed for anything.

1.) 15 Aug 2022
15 Aug 2022 12:35:37
The club is valued at 3 billion minimum, so a debt of 500 million is chicken feed, virtually any business will have loans secured against, it’s the way of most efficiency…… that’s not even a problem, and no potential buyer would even see it as such, your reading too much in to a debt of less then 20% of clubs value….

2.) 15 Aug 2022
15 Aug 2022 12:51:14
Any new buyers will borrow as much as the banks are willing to lend. There is no such a thing as a cash buyer mate.

Even elon musk with all his wealth borrowing money as much as he can get to buy twitter.

If thst day comes don’t worry about how the deal is structured as long as the new ownership is professional and set up a very professional structure top down.

3.) 15 Aug 2022
15 Aug 2022 13:45:05
I think you guys are misunderstanding what I'm saying.

My concern revolves around the Glazers not selling. Can you honestly see them investing £500+ on the stadium and training ground and also investing the necessary £150-200m annually in the squad? If so, where are they going to get the money from. The club doesn't generate that much free cash flow.

Debt is fine and normal, but the higher it gets the greater the risk and the greater the cost. Remember those PIK notes at the time of the LBO? The club has not been profitable recently, the debt has been rising, and they need to reverse that trend, because while you may be correct in assessing the sale value of the until it's sold then it will have to exist within its current financial constraints. If they can't or don't want to raise money then none of the good things will happen. They will be left with driving down the wage bill.

I'm not worried about a potential buyer's finances at all. Anyone coming in will have all that lined up. I only wish someone would step up and do it. Tomorrow would not be soon enough.

4.) 15 Aug 2022
15 Aug 2022 15:51:58
From ltv point of view the owners club could finance all the improvements to the stadium/ expand and the facilities and probably get a return on the investment especially if they expand the capacity.

As far investment into players goes, the club has spent over a billion of its own money on players. It generates plenty to compete in the transfer market as long as it stops neing the golden payday of players whose best is behind them which we seem to do over and over.

I don’t run the club but i assume the wage structure of the club is the biggest issue and current squad. I hope someone has put a plan together to systematicly clean it up whilst also investing in the squad. I would assume we have the worst return on wages if there was such a metric of any major club in europe.

Arsenal who are much smaller than us went through this a while ago and starting to reap the benefits but suffered along the way.

5.) 15 Aug 2022
15 Aug 2022 16:34:28
I'm not sure the club or the Glazers will have the ability to repay any added loans or borrowings. The club is already facing a difficult time financially as it is not generating enough profit to cover the existing debts. So, how are they going to repay for new debts and borrowings? The idea of expanding the capacity is one way, but if the team is not successful, then the tickets will not be sold.
I think the club have been doing everything upside down, the plan should have been to build state of the art training facilities, build a young and hungry squad managed by a modern progressive manager, achieve success, then and only then, can they think about ground improvements and expansion. Without success on the pitch, any plan is useless.