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Manchester United key statistics
I just want to point out a few key statistics and thought processes which should be considered when people post.
Firstly, formation and strategy. IMO Man City have the best team/squad in England, including 4 World Class players in Kompany, Yaya, Silva and Aguero. Yet, what have they won in 3-4 years, besides 1 Premier League and 1 FA Cup? Yet, look at Liverpool this season. Top of the league with a 'good' team. I'd say they only have 1 Worldie in Suarez.
The possible reason for this... Formation and strategy! City play 4-2-3-1 with Yaya and Fernandinho playing slightly deeper than a conventional CM. Liverpool play 4-3-3 with a deep lying Gerrard. Liverpool have outscored city significantly which could be due to having 5 advanced players as opposed to city's 4.
BENEFITS OF 4-3-3 (4-1-4-1)
* Leads to quicker closing down in more advanced positions,
* more players attacking on the break,
* a deeper CM helps cover the CB's,
* more central options in attacking areas,
* opposition teams usually condense more to attempt to shut out the middle men thus allowing forwards/overlapping fullbacks to get space out wide and in behind.
Its similar to how Barca played under Pep when they trounced everyone, how Bayern play and walk the League in Germany, and how both Madrids play in Spain to great effect. Non of those 'successful' European teams play 2 holding CM's, they all play a deep lying midfielder with more players in advanced positions.
Next, I don't know the significance of Evra's inability and to track opposition players, but I'm guesstimating that a lot of our goals conceded come from attacks materialising in advanced areas down the left hand side. This likely leads to CB's being dragged out to cover him and leaving a gapping hole through the middle. Without going into too much again on formation, this is where having one deeper lying CM would come into effect (providing a 3rd CB almost at times). But the simple fact is, EVRA isn't doing his shift defensively.
In terms of midfield, people have been jumping on Shinji's back saying he doesn't do enough (goals and assists). OK, based on stats alone, in the minutes hes played he has not scored this season, and his assists aren't enough (3 assists in league) compared to Mata (3 goals; 7 assists). However, Mata has played double the amount of minutes of Shinji, with 10 90 minutes under his belt as opposed to only 4 for Kagawa. Kagawa has also played more than 60 minutes 9 times all season, where as Mata has 20 times. I am not getting into a debate over who is the best player, I am simple attempting to break down statistics. Last season, Shinji scored 6 with 4 assists (total of 10 goals heavily involved in) equalling a goal created every 130 minutes.
Other midfielders in the league this season...
BETTER
* Eden Hazard one goal created every 115 minutes.
* Yaya one goal created every 114 minutes.
* Gerrard one goal created every 109 minutes.
* David Silva one goal created every 101 minutes.
PLAYERS WHO HAVE HAD A GOOD SEASON (WORSE)
* Lallana one goal created every 160 minutes.
* Mesut Ozil one goal created every 145 minutes.
(bare in mind YAYA, GERRARD, HAZARD all take penalties, free kicks etc...)
Both Mata and Shinji each create a goal (score or assist) less than every game and a half. For me, David Silva is silly, he is close to the best playmaker in the World IMO. Another factor which I would like to point out is, scoring chances (shots/key passes) created by forwards. I dont know the actual stat for this, but I know teams who play 5 advanced players (4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3 with deep lying CM (Barca, Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool)) create roughly 35% more chances per game than other teams in the respective leagues top 5 (at Christmas this was) who played with 2 holding midfielders. So I am guessing the likes of Liverpools top 3 (Sturridge, Sterling and Suarez) create more opportunities than us for example. Opportunities are created by forward players being in dangerous areas in and around the opponents area and getting in behind the defence. We simply do not do that, or currently do not have the quality to do that. This impacts the figures I stated for Mata and Skinji, as they have less opportunity to create a key pass (due to forwards not getting in those areas enough).
A couple of figures for our forwards this season...
* Danny Welbeck has 11 (9 goals; 2 assists) in the league this season. In terms of goals involved in per minutes played that's a goal/assist once every 118 minutes.
* Rooney has 27 (15 goals; 12 assists) at one every 87 minutes.
* RVP has 14 (11 goals; 3 assists) at one every 104 minutes.
* Hernandez has 7 (4 goals; 3 assists) at one every 103 minutes.
LIVERPOOL
* Suarez has 54 (29; 24) = 1 every 50 mins.
* Sturridge has 28 (20; 8) = 1 ever 74 mins.
CITY
* Aguero = 1 ever 51 mins.
* Dzeko = 1 every 92 mins.
This does suggest that either conversion rates are poorer at United, or players are not getting into advanced positions, or chances are not being created often enough. From watching every minute of the season, I would conclude that players are not getting in behind the defence as the likes of Reus, Sterling, Hazard, Suarez, Pedro, Aguero, Bale, Ronaldo, Robben, Ribery do. I would suggest this is an area we need to strengthen and work on.
I have provided statistics for everyone here, take it how you like, but I want to give some perspective to opinions going forward.
IMO we need to play 4-1-4-1 (4-3-3) like all of the big teams who are getting success through this system. Evra needs to be replaced. 1 CB with experience would be beneficial with top knowledge of the game, a new Vidic, a leader, somebody commanding, somebody to guide our younger CB's and organise us. We need a dominating, quick, positionally sound deep lying CM who can pass successfully, who is quick, strong and can provide good support to the CBs, and who can also provide our advanced players going forward. I would love to see Kagawa and Mata kept as our two further advances CM's, as the stats showed, they create a lot of opportunities, even in a team without a Suarez or an Aguero type player. I would also favour Hernandez being given more opportunity playing off the shoulder of the last man, providing we can get top quality quick, direct forward (s) this summer. A Reus for example, somebody who can do what Hazard does at Chelsea, what Sterling does at Liverpool, what Bale does at Real, what Robben and Ribery do at Bayern. I would also like to see Januzaj given more opportunities in this role. being given more licence to play higher up, as a Reus would also.
I have based this on logic based on watching and analysing many hours of football and creating statistics (1 year of performance analysis during my degree), so whether you agree or disagree, that is up to you.
A system where we have the likes of Mata and Kagawa, we need players up top who can get in behind and be involved in as many scoring opportunities, be it goals or assists, as possible. Otherwise our playmakers will get shut out, like we did at Everton yesterday because Rooney decided to also drop deep. We dominate possession and territorial possession, yet created very little. And its not because we didnt have the quality to produce opportunities, it was because we didnt have that/those player(s) to get in behind!
This is where we need a combination of our playmakers, quick direct forwards, and a striker, such as Hernandez or RvP, who will get into goal scoring/providing areas more often.
Finally, my team on paper :)
_________________De Gea___________________
__________________________________________
___________Evans________GARAY____________
_Rafael______________________________SHAW_
________________CARVALHO_________________
__________________________________________
____________Mata_______Kagawa____________
__________________________________________
____Reus________________________Januzaj____
___________________RvP____________________
Obviously injury, form, opponents, fixtures etc play a significant role therefore the likes of Rooney, Buttner, Hernandez, Jones, Lindergaard, Nani, Lingard, Keane, Fellaini, Carrick will be circulating this XI.
Any further input welcome :)
23 April 2014
I mentioned this when bayern played arsenal although I had Rooney and Kagawa in front of Fellaini in the midfield, with mata and Januzaj supporting rvp. U look at bayed a first team, they usually go with schweinsteiger as the deep player with kroos and thank the more advanced roles n it works a treat, I totally agree with the formation, the team I used was players we had currently but this team the poster but is much better.
It's the way forward
23 April 2014
I completely agree with this theory. I have mentioned something similar in the past.
That way Kagawa, Rooney, and Mata would be able to be deployed in the same team all interchanging into space with new signing ie. Reus/Griezmann or Januzaj. Leaving Rvp or Hernandez up top.
Then we would need a solid tackling CDM that will be committed to sitting in front of the defence protecting them and to break up counter attacks. His passing range need not be too great as he receives the ball from defence and passes on to one of the attacking 5 to build up a play.
We will have plenty of fluidity, creativity and some pace to be able to play attractive attacking football and scoring plenty goals.
22 April 2014
I Agree with Evans there. He's too slow to adopt a high line against the best. I'm hoping Jones will come good. Hes strong, quick and got the potential, but its been two years, he now needs to realise it. He needs to be kept at CB and not chopped and changed IMO.
You say buy a new this and that, but lets be realistic, there is not going to be 6 near world class players coming in this summer. It just doesn't happen. In regards to Rooney, I have my opinions on him and I think the team suggests my opinions, but I dont want to start jumping on the backs of players. All I will say is whats done is done, and can't be undone!
22 April 2014
I'd be more than happy with a team looking like that. But depending on how high you feel the Mata, Kagawa combination would play, I feel you may need a more complete midfielder i.e. a Vidal or a Gundogan alongside otherwise there's a lot of pressure on Carvalho to perform and with him liking to make the occasional break forward, who's going to cover him? Could leave us open at the back with those players mentioned. The bench looks strong, firstly, Valencia? Smalling? Welbeck? And secondly, you have not mentioned who you would like to captain this side? Out of all of those players, you'd have to choose Rooney as the most likely candidate and possibly RVP as the player starting you could see as captain. IMO the captain on the field has one duty which is to lead from the front and show the drive and determination should we go a goal down and although RVP is a class player, may not provide this for us which leads me back to my last point of a more complete midfielder who could cover Carvalho if needs be as well as my choice for captain next year. I'd stick Rooney in for Kagawa and make him club captain. This might not be a popular decision and may not be very welcome in Rooney's eyes either but he must realise that to become an all-time great he must do what is needed for the team. I see him as more of a midfielder anyway and would do a better all round job than Kagawa IMO.
All of the targets you have are attainable and popular choices, for a reason, and I'm privy to a little inside information so I'm certain of Garay and Carvalho coming in with Shaw and Reus as quite likely to also join.
So all in all a decent analysis but may need minor tweaks IMO
22 April 2014
Replace Kagawa with a more complete central midfielder like a Kroos, Vidal and a stronger CB instead of Evans and that is a world class team imo.
Although i think with Rooney having signed a new contract, having just RVP as striker is unlikely.