29 Mar 2023 06:25:04
Hi Ed002, hope all is well. Do you know much about Thomas Zilliacus? Is he a ‘serious’ bidder for the club?

{Ed002's Note - Thomas Zilliacus, a Finish telecoms investor, will use Far Eastern banks and XXI Century Capital to assist by leveraging an attempted buyout of the club. Will likely make a low-ball offer and then float.}

1.) 29 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 21:41:02
Thank you for your reply Ed. One final question if I may; in your esteemed opinion, do you think the Glazers will stay put or sell?

{Ed002's Note - Hard to say - without an offer matching the asking price they will look to selling a minority stake. I suspect a buyer might be found - but it may drag on a little while longer.}

2.) 29 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 23:11:54
Cheers for the great info Ed. When you say buyer found, still potential for another besides main 2 of Jassim and Sir Jim (and the odd finnish fella) to crop up?

{Ed002's Note - It could be one of them but no doubt they would listen to a different bidder as well. There are also bigger calculations Chris which need to be understood. What happens to the existing debt? What is the cost of upgrading the stadium and facilities at the training facility? What are the exploitation opportunities to increase revenue? very difficult.}

3.) 29 Mar 2023
29 Mar 2023 23:48:04
Very true. Really tricky situation. It’s hard to understand how a partial sale solves the problem, unless with Elliott it includes repackaging debt at a longer term and doing a cheaper refurbishment than rebuild on stadium. And I don’t see how Elliott opens doors for revenue. Really hope Sir Jim ends up with it as I can see how he could resolve these issues.

{Ed002's Note - Elliott are Vulture Capitalists and would look to boost the bids of other bidders. They cannot bid on their own.}

4.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 08:30:48
ED002,

Do the Glazers need to sell a minority stake in the club if they don't agree to selling their sharing control in the club?

Given the need to refurbish the stadium and training ground, would they would need outside investment to achieve this, given the costs involved?

Thanks.

{Ed002's Note - I really don't know - you appear to be clutching at straws.}

5.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 15:50:48
Looking at Q2 results current and non-current borrowings are now £740m and liabilities, predominantly unpaid transfer fees another £380m. As Ed002 points out there's the whole question not only of the debt but what to do with OT and Carrington, a combined cost projected to be > £1bn+. The club isn't making any money, either profits or + cash flow. They can't even pay dividends for the time being. How is United going to afford to compete for top players without further investment in the club itself. Yes, they could sell off naming rights, and my guess is that's exactly what will happen if a major stadium overhaul is to be undertaken, but that income will be offset by the cost of financing the work, and doesn't even include capital repayments. The problem with football teams from an investment point of view, compared to a US sports teams, is there's no franchise income guarantees. The ESL was an attempt to resolve that issue. It failed. for now.

This is indeed a very complicated situation. If someone is offering £4bn and taking on the debt as well it's hard to see why the Glazers wouldn't snap their hands off. From a purely financial point of view the club isn't worth it.

6.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 18:15:08
The problem with the partial sale is it most probably gets rid of some glazers not the others and money would go to the ones leaving not the club. or am I way off? So in a way partial sale doesn't really change anything and there's no reason other than if some of the glazers want out not all?

{Ed002's Note - The money goes to the owners and not the club regardless of who buys part or all of it. There is no scenario where the sale money would go to the club.}

7.) 30 Mar 2023
30 Mar 2023 20:10:10
Thanks ed yes I think we are agreeing.

My point is an owner who would receive that money could choose to invest it but that most probably wouldn't be the case with United as the money would go to the departing glazers (Brian, Darcy and I'm sure there's another) to "buy them out" not to the remaining ones (probably Joel and Avram) who could use it to invest.

What I'm saying is probably an overly simplistic way of saying something a lot more complicated.

Obviously they could all take a cut and split it/ invest some but I don't think they would have tried to sell if this was an option.

{Ed002's Note - It is not complicated at all. There is no means for the club to get any money from the sale.}

8.) 31 Mar 2023
31 Mar 2023 10:05:34
New here

A sale can happen with the current owners having to settle the debt as part of the transfer of ownership hence the club does benefit. The reported numbers of a bid will always factor in the debt and someone will pay it.

Its a bit off fiction where the new owners hand the glazers a massive cheque and not factor the debt and in, in all cases the people who are holding the debt i.e banks have to agree which usually means settling the debt as part off the deal whether all equity or a leveraged/ financed buy out. basically you pay the old lenders off and arrange new financing if its a leveraged buy out.

I would not sweat this too much Qatari's deal will get done at around 5.2 billion. This was communicated a while ago by someone who is involved, which includes the glazers paying the debt. new owners will take over with no debt at the club. NO Idea what Sir Jim's bid is at and I assume he will borrow as will the Qataris.

The 6b being sprouted is all bs and just click bait. Glazers are definitely going and that's a positive anyway you look at it.

No different to selling a house with a mortgage on it. As the current owner you have to settle the existing mortgage with the bank, how the new owner funds it is another chapter.

9.) 31 Mar 2023
31 Mar 2023 19:42:14
I find all this fascinating. If you had £6bn knocking about, there are much quicker and easier ways to make money by investing it. Pure ego and play toys drives all this. No deal will make financial sense.

10.) 02 Apr 2023
01 Apr 2023 09:22:23
As soon as reaches 5.5 bn, they’ll sell.

Detached owners only interested in money but very shrewd businessmen.