24 Dec 2024 17:11:42


Shappy has written an article entitled, Where is Manchester United under Amorim?

1.) 25 Dec 2024
24 Dec 2024 22:35:33
I have to strongly disagree on the 1st problem you described Shappy.
In my opinion, we create a lot (or at least enough) of high xG chances, but we don't have the players who can convert them.
Examples are Bruno and Garnacho from the last match. But it isn't just this one match, it goes back to the last season, when our players simply couldn't finish the chances.

2.) 25 Dec 2024
25 Dec 2024 10:36:40
Trololo, we create an average xG of 1.48 per game, which puts us 7th in the league.

Which is obviously not good enough.

However, xG is the total accumulation of all the chances in a game. A penalty for example has an xG of 0.79. We often get 0.30-0.50 xG a game from 4 or 5 low chance long shots that rarely go in.

We have an average of 13.5 shots per game, which means if you divide our xG of 1.48 by 13.5 we get an average xG of 0.11 (rounded up) per shot.

We are not creating enough high quality chances, certainly not chances of high enough quality for our very average finishers that we have in our forward line.

You look at the chances we miss and they are rarely really good chances. It's not a 1v1 against the keeper from 6 yards out. The "good" chances we miss tends to be from 12-15 yards out through a crowd of bodies.

High xG chances come from shots taken less than 10 yards out, while fairly central.

We don't miss many of those, probably no more than most teams to be honest.

We still take far too many shots from poor positions, and we struggle to create enough high quality chances.

Players like Rashford, Højlund, Bruno, Amad and Garnacho are more than capable of scoring from high quality chances. The problem is that they often take shots from poor positions or low quality chances due to either poor decision making and/ or moving the ball too slowly meaning the opposition are back in shape by the time the shot happens.

3.) 25 Dec 2024
25 Dec 2024 17:39:48
Why would Chelsea loan out Nkunku in January? He’s not started many games in the PL yes but he’s pretty much their only back-up ST and I think he’s their top scorer overall, and with Mudryk potentially banned for ages, his versatility to play across the forward line will only help. Also pretty sure the Sancho loan deal has a €25m obligation clause in it (but not sure if it’s appearance based) so they’d have no need to do a swap deal.

4.) 25 Dec 2024
25 Dec 2024 22:22:50
Shappy the average expected goal per shot is 0,10 in the hole world. So our 0,11 is decent, ofcourse we can improve it further. Merry Christmas to everyone.

5.) 26 Dec 2024
26 Dec 2024 09:32:08
Ugarte, the global average is no where near good enough to where we want to be.

The average is massively brought down by the significantly more teams who don't win anything compared to the good teams that do win major honours.

The average xG per shot from teams that challenge for and win major honours is around 0.18 xG per shot.

Whereas teams that are averaging closer to 0.10 xG per shot are those mid-table or relegation threatened teams.

So I certainly wouldn't consider our xG of 0.11 (which was rounded up) to be decent.

6.) 27 Dec 2024
27 Dec 2024 01:07:59
I don't think that's the case Shappy. If you search the average shoot per game of top teams and their expected goals per game and make the maths you will see they don't have much more than o,11 xg per shoot. But then you will find that top teams often enough they outperform their expected goals and that's make a big difference.
It can't be much more than 0,11 anyway. If it was let's say 0,20 then practically a top team could score a goal every 5 shoots and i don't think that's the case and its not sustainable.