28 Oct 2024 06:43:49
Just a personal opinion, but I don't believe the board are convinced by Ten Hag and he is just a placeholder this season until they can get their preferred manager in.
As long as the train doesn't come completely off the tracks, they would like to leave him post as long as possible.
28 Oct 2024 07:07:10
You're probably right but today I've never been abd angry and fed up about the state of the game. Micheal oliver paid by city refs a utd game and gives that on var. Irs so bad you gave to question it. no one can convince me at this present time that that's not pure corruption. Unfortunately, they hate urd that much they think it's funny but we're all suffering. every game it's utd v 12 men. Last week utd won but the ref in that was unbelievably diabolical. I'm so mad it's untrue.
28 Oct 2024 07:20:46
Grim,
I think that may well be true. No point in replacing the manager for one you don't really want.
However, there is the potential for RVN to step in as interim manager. That depends on whether or not RVN would want to become an Interim manager for the remainder of the season.
I'm sure come the November international break, that things will become clearer.
28 Oct 2024 07:21:48
How far off the tracks do we have to be Grim before he is sent on his merry way though?
Feels like we derailed last season.
28 Oct 2024 07:36:09
Eric I think it will be decided this week. Chelsea at the weekend could be the final nail that's all.
28 Oct 2024 08:58:20
Grim,
How could anyone be possibly convinced with ETH, I don’t think it’s a stretch by any means to suggest the board aren’t convinced by him, if they were it would be absolute madness. I think they have a plan to make us great again by 2028 and making a rash decision now could derail that, cost the club money for limited gain and leave us in the same position again in a few years.
I know people want things immediately but ETH will leave the club, he’s clearly not going to take us to where we want to be and won’t be manager next season, his team selections are baffling, we have a formation that isn’t working but he plays it in every game whilst just moving players around.
Mazraoui has played in 3 different positions in the last week, Ugarte was man of the match on Thursday and then didn’t get a minute yesterday, Rashford has one brilliant half of football this season and was immediately subbed, no wonder the players have no confidence in front of goal, but the club are not panicking (which I think is a good thing) as they have to get the next appointment correct.
The future is actually pretty bright, there are some wonderful players in the youth team and Yoro is a fantastic signing, but the future won’t be with Erik Ten Hag managing them, I just hope the club make the correct decision on who it is.
28 Oct 2024 09:41:33
I agree, while I think if the right manager wasn't available in the summer sticking with EtH was the best decision. I think it's fairly obvious that the new owners at the very least thought they could upgrade on him, which is why they spoke fairly openly with so many managers over the summer.
I think it was always likely to be a matter of when they sack him rather than will they. It was going to require a pretty substantial turnaround in performances and for the new set up to see developments in key areas that they are looking at for EtH to actually keep his job long term.
As a fan and wanting the club to be successful I was hopeful that we would see that progress. Hopeful that with better support and clearer vision and targets that the manager would be able to deliver that progress.
Unfortunately that isn't looking likely now, certainly not at least in the kind of timeframe that is needed for EtH to ultimately save his job.
Which means the club are back to making a decision about when they replace him.
In the summer there was no candidate available and willing to join who they felt was worth the rigmarole of changing managers. So they stuck with Erik.
If they still isn't a manager who is available and willing to join now then they should stick with their original decision.
None of the key factors that led to that decision has changed, so they shouldn't change that decision.
We also need to consider the cost of sacking EtH now, reportedly 16m. No doubt that figure will drop come the end of the season, especially if certain targets haven't been met.
Severance settlements cannot be amortised, meaning the 16m we would pay EtH to leave is the equivalent of us making an 80m signing on a 5 year deal.
Effectively that's what it will cost us in terms of squad building next summer.
That is a factor the club have to take into consideration. Is the need to sack the manager so great that it is more cost effective to sack him and significantly reduce our spending capacity in the summer, than keep him until the cost is reduced.
Certainly there is an argument that with EtH the chances of top four and UCL football and the money that brings is highly unlikely. Therefore replacing him with someone who could secure that would mitigate the cost of sacking him.
But that is a gamble. A roll of the dice. If the new manager doesn't secure UCL football then you've just increased your losses and hamstrung the club in the summer. Which will obviously have a detrimental effect on the new managers ability to improve the squad and have a positive impact.
So let's do a thought experiment, if Pep was to take over as our manager today with the squad we have, and without being able to make any signings in January (sacking EtH would absolutely put paid to any chance of a January signing) would he be able to guarantee a top four finish?
Maybe, his first season at City wasn't phenomenal and it took time and many signings for Pep to turn City into the machine they are right now.
Would he improve us? Absolutely, enough to get us UCL football from this position? Certainly not guaranteed, and probably still an outside chance. So if arguably the current best manager in the world only has an outside chance of getting UCL qualification, then it's fair to suggest that there probably isn't a manager available and willing to join us right now who is likely to be able to get UCL football.
It's not like we have an amazing squad who are massively underperforming. We all more or less agreed before the season started that we had maybe the 4th or 5th best squad in the league at best. Which means if they performed at their best there was a decent chance of top four assuming not all the squads better than us would play at their best.
However, looking at how this season has started I'd say City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all have better squads than us and have all started well. While Villa have also started well and have actually been fantastic in the UCL. We'd need to have a near faultless restaurant of the season and require two of those sides to have a significant dip in form to have any chance of top four.
So if UCL football is almost certainly not going to happen this year, and the club will have to deal with the financial implications of that. Then it makes even less sense to sack the manager now and further significantly impact our precarious financial situation.
Ultimately the decision about when to sack EtH will ultimately have the biggest impact on the amount the club can improve the squad next summer.
Sack him sooner and leave the next manager with maybe only a couple of signings and having to try and get more out of this group of players than they have shown themselves capable of. Baring in mind that there will likely be another decent clear out of players next summer with several out of contract and others just getting on (Heaton, Maguire, Lindelof, Evans, Casemiro and Eriksen) . It might mean the club have to keep a few of them as they cannot afford to replace them.
That would likely mean the new manager will be starting next season with a weaker squad than we currently have. Hardly the start the club would want to give the new manager.
Or do the club stick with EtH, limp through the season, sack him for much less at the end of the season, be able to bring in their preferred/ ideal candidate and have the funds to make sure he has a better squad than this current one.
Neither are particularly inspiring options for the short term, this might be one of those situations where as fans we have to take the short term pain and continue to watch our club limp along for the next 6 months, so that we have a chance of getting better next season. Otherwise it could be two seasons of struggle before we have a better squad capable of the kind of improvement we want and need.
28 Oct 2024 09:56:28
We can’t just leave eth in situe all season though? It could do untold damage. If our preferred choice isn’t available then find a temporary solution. I get not wanting to rush and make another rash decision but keeping him just because, isn’t an option either. Do something to try and get some positivity around the place. 2-3 more months of this and the damage could be irreperable.
28 Oct 2024 10:55:40
What we need is someone who can steer us in the right direction! Otherwise we start next season off a weaker footing than this one and it’ll be well after 2028 before we win anything other than the championship to get back into the EPL.
28 Oct 2024 12:03:10
Still think it will be Gareth.
28 Oct 2024 12:20:17
That post aged well!