27 Jun 2024 23:54:22
I think the big rebuilding summer we all hoped for isn't going to materialise this year. I don't blame the new owners, I just think circumstances are against us.
They got in much later than they had hoped. Which set them back. They haven't been able to hire all the people they wanted into key positions yet. Let alone for those people to get their feet under the table and be able to fully assess what needs doing.
The situation with PSR is such that we need to sell to buy, and given other clubs have similar PSR/ FFP challenges it will likely be harder to shift players for decent fees to raise those funds than usual.
While I'm happy that they are giving EtH another year at least, I think it's pretty obvious that he isn't the guy they want, but is the best they have available to them at this tricky juncture. Which if we are sensible means that the club probably don't want to spend every last penny they have buying players for a manager they aren't totally convinced with.
So we have a limited budget, with difficulty in raising it through sales, without the vital personnel in key positions to run the club, with a manager that the club has reservations over. Throw into that it's a summer of international tournaments meaning players and agents are harder to get hold off, while potential selling clubs will likely want to wait and see if their player has a good tournament to bump up the transfer fee.
I think a good summer this year will be shifting 12-15 players, thinning the squad and bringing costs under control. 3-4 key signings who will all impose the first 11, and hopefully younger players like Kambwala, Amass, Collyer, and Amad get given more chances. Then next season we can get the key people in, they can start assessing and making changes. We need to finish in the UCL places, then maybe next summer we might be in a position to spend big on another 4-5 key signings. But that won't be this year.
28 Jun 2024 07:04:09
Shappy,
The hardest challenge the club faces this summer, is offloading those players on large wages.
I can't see 12-15 being sold this summer unless you are including released players in this figure.
28 Jun 2024 07:18:58
Shappy, I’ve said before, this window and a couple after is going to be about reestablishing ourselves in the market after years of poor business. There is no chance the new personnel will undo years of overspending in one window. It’s going to be important, unfortunately, to walk away early from deals like Branthwaite for example and shop smarter rather than drag it out and then stumping up at end of August.
28 Jun 2024 09:48:11
Problem is that we all know the team/ squad is a million miles away from where it needs to be. It is unrealistic to expect Utd to ship out so many overpaid and under performing players in one or even two windows. There won't be many takers willing to pay decent money for them. This will inevitably impact the ability to buy better players and as a result ETH has a very difficult season ahead.
I can foresee lots of fans quickly becoming toxic if they don't perceive progress with results but that is going to be really hard to achieve in the short term. This squad needs a massive overhaul.
28 Jun 2024 10:25:09
Patience is a virtue.
28 Jun 2024 10:32:10
Mad Hatter, I'm included all players leaving in that figure.
Varane, Lindelof, Williams, Alvaro Fernandez, Donny, Hannibal, Amrabat, Pellistri, Forson, Martial, Sancho, Greenwood and Shoretire.
All looks certain to leave or already have left. Most of those played little to no part in the first team last season for various reasons. Only Varane of that group really needs replacing in terms of minutes played, along with Martial as he was our only other striker alongside Højlund.
If/ when all those players leave that would be 13 players out the door.
Evans and Heaton are both out of contract and could both leave taking us to 15 potentially leaving. Although the club is trying to negotiate new one year deals for both of them. I'd expect them both to stay.
You then have the likes of AWB, Maguire, McTominay, Casemiro, and Eriksen would could all leave if good enough offers are made.
Which is another 5 players who could potentially leave, although all would need replacing if they left. I'd imagine both Casemiro and Eriksen will leave, for that reason I'd expect McTominay to stay unless a really high offer was made. Maguire I'd expect to stay this summer as well as a replacement for him would likely cost more than we could make from his sale and the budget is already tight. AWB is the one I think is totally 50/ 50 right now.
Keeping count that 13 from that first group who'll all almost certainly leave one way or another. Along with Casemiro, Eriksen and possibly AWB. Bringing us to 16 players leaving this summer.
I've said 12-15 as I'm not convinced all of those players will leave on a permanent deal. I can't see someone paying for Donny who's been injured for most of the past 3 seasons and poor when not. That might have to be another loan. As might Sancho, possibly a loan with either buy obligation or option.
The problem comes that from all those players there are many who'll bring in significant transfer fees.
Greenwood, Hannibal, and Sancho from that first list are the only one's who'll sell for 15m+. While a lot of Sancho's fee won't actually help due to the fee we paid for him yet to be amortised. The rest will leave for 10m or less. Maybe raising 20-25m at most between them. With maybe 25m for Greenwood and 15m for Hannibal. Meaning maybe around 60-65m at most.
Casemiro might sell for 25-30m at most, but like Sancho most of that won't actually help to raise funds due to the amortisation of his transfer fee. Eriksen would also be maybe 5m at most. AWB could be around 20m.
Meaning all in we might be able to raise 90-100m, the real benefit is the reduction in wages.
Combined we might be able to spend 150-200m at absolute most this summer. The questions is cancelled we get the players we want/ need and will the club be prepared to spend their maximum budget with a manager they aren't completely convinced by. Or would they rather keep a little of their powder dry for next summer when they are in a better position and might have a new manager for the project.
I can see the club spending the 60-70m for Branthwaite, maybe the 35m needed for Zirkzee. That leaves at most 50-70m for a midfielder and possibly a fullback. Would they want to spend all of that? Probably not, and they only can once they have cleared the decks and sold players, which might take until deadline day.
I think we'll get a CB, a ST, a midfielder and maybe a young cheaper RB if AWB leaves. I doubt there is the budget for a second CB or midfielder for that matter and we will have to rely on players like Kambwala, Amass, and Colliyer filling the gaps in the squad this season.
28 Jun 2024 11:23:58
It's still very early in the window and there are two major championships happening, it's probably a little early to make assumptions. As stated by other posters, moving players on is going to be the single biggest challenge for the club. To comply with PSR we need headspace on the wage bill and capital in order to facilitate a major overhaul of the playing staff. There appear to be bids going in for player (how true is an unknown) so it looks like the club have some sort of plan.
Moving Sancho, Rashford and Greenwood which from reports seems to be something potentially happening is going to pull significant numbers off the wage bill and add some funds. I's suggest these three are our biggest potential sales. Then you add in Maguire, Casemiro, Eriksen, Donny and AWB we could free up significant financials giving the club a lot of freedom to move in the transfer market. However, its all hearsay and conjecture at this point.
I'm optimistic for a good window and I'm looking forward to next season with the new coaches etc.
28 Jun 2024 11:27:59
Agreed Salford. We need to be patient as the new structure will need a couple of years to be fully operational, and the squad is such a mess we need 3 full summers to sort it out.
I read on here about a week ago someone saying they expect a title challenge this coming season. We set ridiculous expectations and then get disappointed when it doesn’t happen, becoming toxic like you say. There’s nothing like setting the team and manager up for a fall.
We still need to move on the likes of Casemiro, and Antony which will be very difficult. Rashford is being linked with PSG again, I’m not sure if that’s been rekindled or just paper talk.
Garnacho, Mainoo, Hojlund are many years away from the finished article. Imo the only players we have that are both good enough and in their prime are Bruno and Lisandro, but Bruno is looking poor trying to do everything on his own and Lisandro can’t stay fit for 5 games. This is why I think an established DM is needed, to both free up Bruno as he isn’t getting any younger, and to give the defence more confidence to play higher up the pitch.
The manager and those above him have a mammoth task on their hands, so I think a top 6 finish and a shot at getting to a European final would be a good achievement this coming season.
28 Jun 2024 11:46:35
15 out and 3-4 key players in was the goal a few months ago, if we're still on track for that I'm happy. I think shifting that many seems optimistic, easy to get rid of the fringe players and of course those out of contract but the ones on mega wages who are happy to bench-sit, I'm not so sure. But it's of course a matter of when not if as their contract situations change.
Hopefully for at least a couple of strong additions within a few weeks if not days.
28 Jun 2024 13:56:28
Depends on how people perceive a big rebuild. I am hoping 3/ 4 quality players, who are within a certain age bracket and ability to deal with the most pertinent areas of the squad that needs fixing. We had a horrendous season in terms of injuries and would think/ hope it does repeat.
We have players like Mainoo, garnacho, Hoiland, who are going to get better and have to assume rash will be a lot better, mount will find his feet and amad pushes on. so not that gloomy if we can bring 3/ 4 in and offload 7/ 8. A few like Sancho and Greenwood contributed zero last year so not losing anything offloading them.
Ineos have always said 3 windows so that would be a good start. deal with the most important areas first.
28 Jun 2024 13:58:15
Wazza, is it that ridiculous to think United could make a title charge?! I suggested couple weeks ago that top 4 is there to be nailed down when you, perhaps don’t look at United but consider the situation other teams are in. Man City, keeping motivated to keep going and going is really tough and a lot of their players have been away at the international tournaments, they have the most at the Euro’s. Arsenal have second most with 11 and they’ve gone close last 2 seasons, how much has stumbling at the last hurdle affected them mentally and physically? Liverpool, new manager so we don’t know what to expect from them and they had the 3rd most away. Villa, Champions League football with a relatively small squad will have an impact on them, Chelsea, another new manager, Tottenham, we know all about Tottenham and their challenges. Newcastle? Still a long way for to go imo. Then United. Well we saw what happened in first year and we made the excuses for this season. If we can go into the season with a new CB, and more athletic defensive minded CM and back up striker for Hojlund, we are not a million miles away from a team that can challenge if we can stay fit and get a bit of luck. The opening fixtures is going to give us a great chance to get points on the board early on so personally I wouldn’t be happy with a top 6. Top 4 is a must, a good run in Europe and really look at winning it should be the targets. Then with a bit of luck that we didn’t get this season who knows. Would I put my last tenner on us winning it? Probably not, but if we get the 3 positions sorted, let’s for argument sake say Tobido, Ugarte and Morata for want of a better back up striker, would I be surprised if we are still in and around the title mix come March/ April?! No I don’t think I will.
28 Jun 2024 16:51:22
Ports, yes I do think it’s that ridiculous to think United will make a “title charge”, which to me sounds like we’ll be pushing the winners all the way.
We finished 8th in the league, with the winners on more than 150% of the points than we managed!
City having more players at the Euros isn’t going to bridge our gal to them. That fact only tells me that City have much better players than us, as do Liverpool and Arsenal.
We now have less players than we ended last season with, and I’m sure we will see some new signings coming in, but so will those above us.
I don’t know why you mention Spurs or Newcastle, as they won’t be on a title charge either.
City are the team to beat, and Liverpool and Arsenal will most likely be closest to them again.
Talk about a title challenge only sets us up for failure. It’s expecting too much too soon.
We are favourites for the Europa League and that’s our best route to the CL imo. If we can have a good cup run and be pushing for top 4 I would see that as an improvement and a step in the right direction.
28 Jun 2024 17:04:32
So you’ve gone from defending ETH last season and the team because of all the injuries we had and everything else around the club because we came 3rd last season to thinking we should be getting top 6 now under a better regime and more structure? Fair enough.
28 Jun 2024 19:13:44
Ports, yes that is correct. It’s not as black and white as you are making out.
We are nowhere near a “title charge”. We weren’t last year, or the year before that, or the year before that, and so on.
With a proper footballing structure and a solid transfer strategy we can close the gap over the next couple of seasons, but we won’t be pushing the winner to the end this season imo.
28 Jun 2024 20:04:26
Ports, it is possible that EtH over achieved in his first season, while last season was badly impacted by excessive injuries. However, even with progress next season we could still finish outside of the top four.
Manchester United do not exist in a bubble.
If Arsenal, City, Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool, Villa and Spurs all improve as much or more than we do this summer, then finishing in the top four will be difficult even if we improve in all areas.
We need to rebuild, and that means dismantling part of the squad to do so. That can be a step backwards to be able to make a step forward.
Top four is possible next season. But to expect it or a title challenge is borderline delusional.
28 Jun 2024 20:13:10
Not making it out to be black and white, all I’ve done is give quite conclusive reasons why there’s a possibility that there could be. You’re saying we can’t based on us but not taking into consideration others. Did Leicester push for the title the season before they won it and the season before that and the season before that and so on? Why you so convinced Liverpool will challenge under a new, unproven manager? Were Villa considered top 4, top 6 or even top 8 last season? Footballs different now. We won the fa cup last year, we’re not as far off as some people think imo and taking into consideration other teams situations, the gap may not be what you think. City will have the investigation going on at some point, who knows what the rumours and news etc will have on them?
28 Jun 2024 20:27:38
And what if they don’t Shappy?
28 Jun 2024 23:02:32
Leicester winning the title was a 5000/ 1 shot. A freak. We shouldn’t be hoping to win the Premier League that way. It’s not sustainable. What league did Leicester play in last season? We should be - and are - looking to build a club that can sustain being at the top.
I’m not fully convinced Liverpool will push for the title as it will depend on signings and how their new manager starts, but I think they have a stronger squad and are a more settled club than we are. Therefore I think it’s reasonable to assume they’ll finish above us. If we finish above them this coming season I’ll be very happy about it.
Yes, Villa we’re considered for the top 4, surely for the top 6, and certainly for the top 8 heading into last season. Due to the momentum they had already built in 2023 ahead of August and the brilliance of Unai Emery (Villa were 2nd placed only behind City from points taken in calendar year fixtures from January to August ‘23).
28 Jun 2024 23:39:05
Didn't think there would be a big rebuild this year to be honest. Perhaps a few key appointments off the field and one or two cattle for the park.
I have a horrible feeling we will go into next season with largely what we have now and many players who people wanted rid of still plying their poor trade at United or out on loan.
I say this so I am not disappointed more than when they kept ETH.
BUT
As I said that is the big guns choice and I will reluctantly accept that and hope to be proven very wrong.
Personally I think, and it's only my opinion, that we will be in the same positional struggle as far as Europe is concerned next May. Looking for a new manager……again!
Here's to hoping I am eating shedloads of humble pie and walking round Old Trafford with egg om my face!
29 Jun 2024 08:57:42
Keefy
I have an opposite view and believe we will spend more than most think and add quality players to the squad. I also think we will be much better than last year.
They are going to improve the squad in terms of players recruitment and exits for those who they deemed undermined eth or just not good enough and some of it already underway. You will see a team that will play a lot more to his instructions and how he wants to play. His extension should get announced next week and our transfer activity will start rolling next week.
We will be in the top 4 and cup wise its the luck of draw and many other things that come into it.
{Ed025's Note - top 4 is a massive shout ahmad, City, Arsenal and Liverpool will almost certainly finish above you, so you are in the pool for 4th with the likes of Spurs, Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle mate, i would like to know what makes you think you will be better than them?..
29 Jun 2024 09:09:49
A flower grows in the right environment, just like employees thrive in the right working environments. Utd are working behind the scenes to create that correct environment. Just wait and see what happens.
29 Jun 2024 13:46:13
Well we shall see in a few weeks as pre season will soon be fully under way and the new cattle should be on board.
Don’t hold your breath Ahmad……I’m not!