30 Apr 2016 22:07:52
After replying to a thread regarding whether Higuain would be a good signing - it got me wondering what sort of striker we should really be looking for. As I love facts and figures I thought I'd do a statistical analysis of our strikers over the past 20 years or so to get an idea of what has worked for us and what hasn't.
In the Premier League era the striker position is somewhat unlike any other in that we very rarely bring through young strikers and have not really seen one of our youth strikers go on to really become a first team player (the only one that came close that I can recall is Welbeck) .
In contemporary times pretty much every striker of note that has played for us has been signed by the club rather than brought through and generally speaking they have tended to be proven strikers at or nearing their peak years - Falcao 28, RVP 29, Berbatov 27, Tevez 24, RVN 25, Saha 26, Yorke 26, Sherringham 31, Cole 23, Chicorito 22, Martial 19, Rooney 18, Solskjaer 23, Smith 23, Diouff 21 and Rossi 17.
The average age there is 24 (rounded from 23.875).
9 of those 16 strikers already had EPL experience when we signed them (9 of the 14 signed under SAF) .
If we judge a strikers success with us by the goals they scored (after all - this is the primary role of a striker) and say that a strike ratio of 0.33 or above is successful - we can say that 10 of those 16 were successful (Solksjaer 0.34, Chicorito 0.38, Cole 0.44, RVN 0.68, Yorke 0.44, Saha 0.34, Tevez 0.49, Berbatov 0.38, RVP 0.55 and Rooney 0.48). I'm going to include Martial in this number too as I'm fairly confident that when all is said and done his strike rate will surpass 0.33 even if at present it has not (0.31).
Of those 11 strikers - 7 had Premier League experience when we signed them and the average age upon signing was 24 (24.18). 7 of the 9 strikers with EPL experienced worked out whilst only 3 of the 7 without managed it.
Putting that into percentages - the success rate for strikers coming in with EPL experience is 78% and the success rate for strikers without is 43%.
If we break them into age groups - we can say that those ages 23 or below had a success rate of 63%, 24-26 had a rate of 100%, 27-29 had a rate of 67% and 30+ had a rate of 0% (although he'll always have that goal! ) .
If we look at nationalities - 4 of those we've signed were English and 2 of those were successful giving us a rate of 50% (and also giving my calculator a rest) .
Of course there's a lot more to it than that and a lot of variables that I didn't and couldn't take into account - but the numbers suggest that we should be looking for a player aged between 24 and 26 with experience in the Premier League and that buying English is a 50-50 gamble.
What are everybody elses thoughts on the type of player we should be looking at in terms of age, nationality and whether or not they have EPL experience?
30 Apr 2016 22:20:52
Red
Good effort but dude its saturday night and u have far to much time on your hands.
30 Apr 2016 22:42:22
Jred- Agree entirely. I actually wrote this before heading out to a party earlier - but the site was down at the time so I left it on my clipboard to post when I got home. 10pm might be a little early for most (myself included) - but all the same I felt that having spent 10-15 minutes writing this earlier that it was worth posting at some point!
30 Apr 2016 22:43:51
Interesting.
30 Apr 2016 23:32:14
If they are stupid enough to buy higuain spelling we might as well play wiggy there if he was that good he would still be at madrid.
01 May 2016 07:05:53
Nice one Statto. Out of curiosity, what industry do you work in?
What "sort" of striker? A successful one will do.
On a serious note, I'd hope for a proven PL player who would give us a different option/ dynamic. Other than the obvious there doesn't seem to be many options so perhaps we will look abroad?
01 May 2016 09:33:23
Age 23/ 24 with premier league experience. I think there's a certain belgian wanting out of a merseyside club whod fit the bill perfectly.
And no i'm not talking about benteke.
01 May 2016 10:24:02
Redseven. For me, I think we lack a thinking striker, Kane. And we lack a high energy striker to complement martial and rashford, Vardy/ Lacazzette will be my choice.
I think we need both of these two types to ensure the team can adapt it's play.
Martial is being played in his best position out on the left and drifting in. Defenders don't like it as they find it difficult to mark him.
So if we were to play martial, Vardy and rashford then that will dismantle most defences. Likewise if we were to play Kane, martial and rashford, the attack will be suited to other games.
When we were the best, we had Cole Sheringham Yorke and Ole. We then had Ronaldo Rooney Tevez and berbatov.
We're short in the strikers department and we need top class reinforcements.
01 May 2016 12:51:51
MDH - I work as a journalist - so facts and figures are my bread and butter.
Schmid - Not sure Vardy will have another season like this one.
The reason that I wanted to look at the ages, nationalities and experience of those we've signed in the past is because I think there are a lot of viable options when it comes to signing a striker and wanted to see if our historic signings could give an indicator of where the club might look.
If there's anything to be taken from them it is that our best signings up front seem to have come from the EPL. Lukaku, Kane and Costa seem to fit the bill on that front although I'm not sure that we have a realistic chance of signing any of them.
{Ed001's Note - a journalist using facts??? Well that is something new.....}
01 May 2016 12:56:36
Oh how I miss Ruud VN 0.68 goals per game, no PL experience, coming back from a career threatening injury. I guess there's an exception to every rule. i'd love us to get Kane, I think he could be the next Shearer but doubt he's obtainable. Icardi, Berradi, Lacazzette, Morata and Griezzeman are all worth a look though.
01 May 2016 13:43:03
Since the 96-97 season, I make out that we have had 41 different forwards play first team games for us.