28 Sep 2015 14:54:28
So here we are top of the league by 1 point and having the joint highest goal difference. We have scored 3 in each of our last three games. It might not be swashbuckling but it is controlled and effective. Sure there are faults, there were faults in the Chelsea team last season, but it took until this season for them to be fully noticed. Yes we look a bit light of numbers and quality at both ends of the pitch. But with the luck all champions need throughout the season we should be able to over come any injuries if/when then occur.
The team really seem to be getting to grips with how LvG wants us to play. And with Martial up front we have a cutting edge who just by his very presence is creating space for others to flourish in. Even Rooney had a half decent game against Sunderland, although one swallow does not a summer make. He is declining but that doesn't mean he can't play a vital role for us. Declining is not dead, just that he has peaked and is slowly regressing in his ability to influence a game. But on his day he will still terrorise teams. let's just hope he has quite a few of them this season.
The team is starting to settle, it is a completely new team and I expect them to take time to fully click. In some ways our team will some what follow the path of Anthony Martial this season. Talented and brilliant one its day, but will be up and down as everyone becomes accustomed to their role within it. With a few more ups than downs we will have more than enough to challenge for the league. Arsenal are Arsenal, and will always be there or there a bouts but injury and an inability to get results at key times will likely cost them. City started like a runaway train but have derailed some what over the past couple of weeks which shows they are not indestructible. Yes they have a great collection of players, probably the best in the league. But do they play like a team, and can they force the issue when the chips are down. Chelsea, well where do we start, the poorest start to a season by defending champions ever. Several players have gotten a bit old, and have declined together. Others have failed to find form. Mourinho's teams tend to have problems eventually as he is completely focused on results and not the development of players. He always picks the best team to get the result rather than sometimes picking players so they can develop. This always comes back to haunt him when his stars start to decline and he hasn't groomed an able understudy to be ready to step up and take that place in the first team. Look at Zouma should have been given more games last season to prepare him to replace Terry, Bertrand was one of the best left backs in the league last season but had to leave to get game time. Imagine if Bertrand was still at the club Ivanovic could be dropped with Azpilicueta could have shifted to replace him with Bertrand coming in at LB.
All our competitors have issues that could prevent them from winning the league, just as we do with a lack of defensive cover and options up front. So we are very much in a title race.
Some people have a worry about the games coming in October, and there are no strength forward games, but that is the same with every game. Last season we did better against the on paper at least harder teams than we did against the ones we should so say be beating.
The common belief by many on here is that we struggle against teams that sit back deep and hit us on the counter.
With that in mind can you imagine an Arsenal side at the Emirates sitting back and allowing us to dominate possession? Unlikely, more likely they will try and dictate their own game on us, that will leave space in behind and down the channels for us to exploit. (I think we will win)
Everton at Goodison will also be expected to have a go. I do expect them to sit deep and try and counter as although Martinez likes to see good football he is pragmatic about his chances against perceived superior opposition. Everton getting a result against us will likely depend on Lukaku having a good performance. He will likely go long stretches without being involved, when he gets one of a few chances he will need to do something with it. They have won 2 lost one and drawn 3 so far this season but have had some tough games having played Chelsea, City, Spurs, Swansea and Southampton already this season. Much will depend on their mentality and fitness in this game. (I think we will get another win here too)
Away to CSKA Moscow isn't an ideal trip, the game itself shouldn't be too much of an issue if we play to our strengths but a long trip isn't great preparation for our next game. (Win)
Then home to City, this is the most difficult one to predict, currently City and in a bit of a funk. But this they will have had four games to right that before they play us. How they get on in Europe could be telling, If they don't get a win against Gladbach this week then they will be relying on a win against Sevilla before they play us to have a realistic hope of getting out of their group. Injuries will also play a part and anything could happen between now and then. Without Kompany this City side have struggled defensively. They also have a habit of dropping their heads when they go behind. But a derby game is different, this game could be decided by so many factors. It really could be a either a comfortable win or a humiliating loss and anything in-between. (Toss of a coin)
Home against Middlesbrough will depend on what team each side put out. With this being our 6th game in 29 days with a trip to Russia thrown in there I doubt we will field a full strength team. But with Middlesbrough putting promotion ahead of progression in the cups then I doubt they will field their strongest team. I would expect a win but wouldn't be surprised if we lose depending on what team we put out. (win-depending on team we put out)
Lastly Palace, they are in good form and are one of those sides that will finish comfortably mid table while picking up a few good results along the way. They have already beaten Chelsea so can't be underestimated. But if we play to our ability here we should win. But with this being our 7th game in 32 days with a smaller than usual squad I have a feeling we could struggle to get the result here. (Draw or loss)
So I have us down as wins against Arsenal, Everton and CSKA, with either a loss or draw against Palace and the City and Boro games being hard to judge this far in advance could go either way. Which means at imo worst case scenario 6 points and out of the League cup, best case scenario 10 points and in the next round of the League cup.
So worst case scenario imo is we have 21 points come the start of November, If Chelsea win all their games they will have 20 points, If Arsenal and City both lose once which is likely then they will have 22 and 24 respectively. Which means we will still be within 3 points of top spot and still ahead of Chelsea and only one behind Arsenal both team who historically struggle over the December/January time. Best case scenario is we have 25 points and still be top by at least one point.
That I think is a pretty good position to be in to be honest.
28 Sep 2015 15:12:44
I think everton is the potential banana skin in that lot.
28 Sep 2015 15:32:48
Surely worst case scenario is that we lose every game? I hope we win them all but just don't get the rational behind this post.
28 Sep 2015 15:31:01
I think Everton are a bigger potential banana skin than Arsenal or City. But I think we will beat them.
28 Sep 2015 15:45:16
TOT66, It's the realistic worst case scenario based on my opinion. Or in layman's terms a load of waffle. lol.
I don't think realistically we will lose all our games in October, we could but its unlikely. Just like we could play Wolfsburg on Wednesday and have 7 players break their leg and have to abandon the game. Unlikely but possible. Even in the event of us losing all our game what is the likelihood that all our opponents win all their games?
I'm just stating there is a lot to be positive about atm, and we might even have a team capable of putting in a title challenge this season. Which considering what some posters have said this season was as likely as the second coming of Christ.
28 Sep 2015 15:48:42
shaps
i thought october was an easy month.
rooney has just scored 5 in 5 and still gets slated by the same people.
city have lost both games that silva and kompany have been injured.
arsenal have been no where near there best but are still only 3 points of top, they will get better
chelsea are suffering from a poor transfer window imo there team needed a lift they haven't been great since xmas
28 Sep 2015 16:05:19
Jred, I said I expect 10 out of a possible 12 points and wins in two cup competitions, that doesn't sound like I'm expecting a hard month.
I also praised Rooney on his first decent performance for us, I didn't go over the top but then again he was hardly unplayable winning the game on his own. I thought several people had a better game that him, but that he was improved on previous games he played for us. I also hoped he has more good games than bad, but that I believe he is declining.
Are you of the view that the best is yet to come from Rooney or that he has peaked already?
If City are such a great team that the loss of two players changes a team from a team that wins games 3-0 to a team that losses them 3-0 then I would argue that they aren't as great a team as people make out. I think they have great individuals but at times they struggle to play as a team. They become disjointed and teams take advantage of that.
Arsenal haven't be amazing and have still got some good results. But they tend to play their best football in the first half of the season, with fatigue and injuries often effecting them badly after Christmas. Maybe they will get better, maybe they won't. There are no guarantees.
And I agree that Chelsea have been a little flat since Christmas last year, age and decline have caught up with several players while the varying form of others have held them back. They needed several players in the summer window because Jose fails to plan long term and only worries about the next result.
28 Sep 2015 16:42:12
city always struggle with out kompany and silva .
i think the arsenal struggle after xmas is a myth, only barcelona had more points than arsenal in 2015 .
and i think they picked up more points than any other team in the epl second half of 2014 . i might be wrong on that but have a feeling its right
28 Sep 2015 17:17:15
Jred, I don't think you can say its a myth to say Arsenal tend to struggle after Christmas, it has happened many times. Yes last year things happened in reverse. But from what I can remember they had a lot of injuries in the first part of the season on the back of the World Cup. So several of their key players didn't suffer burn out in the final third of the season as they hardly played until after Christmas. But as of yet that seems to be an exception to the rule. If they have a strong finish to the season this year then maybe we can say they've turned a corner.
As for City always struggling without Kompany and Silva I thought that was why they bought De Bruyne and Otamendi? Supposedly with these two now brought in there wasn't supposed to be a struggle while Kompany and Silva were out. Maybe its unfair to judge them while they are settling in. But so far they have both played in City's last two defeats. Personally I think It has a much to do with Aguero looking drained on the back of the World cup then a long hard season followed by the Copa America along with a few of their South Americans. It appears to have had an adverse effect on them. The injuries just compound the situation. But either way City are not the dominant force we thought they were 4 weeks ago.
28 Sep 2015 17:32:55
shaps
silva is the best player in the league and kompany when playing well makes a difference .
hard to replace them 2 imo augero looked great until he pick up an injury i'm sure he will be back to his best soon .
city are prob the team 2 beat imo .
as for arsenal i'm sure they picked up the most points in the second half of the season for the last 2 seasons now
28 Sep 2015 17:57:44
Silva being the best player in the league is debatable for me. Certainly on his day he is right up there. But he has too many off days during a season for me. His form tends to come in spells. He tends to start the season well drift off a bit mid season then finishes well. Kompany is a top defender but is also the voice in City's back line so will obviously make a difference when not there as not only have they lost their best defender but their defensive organiser as well. To be honest this is something that should have been sorted by now.
I agree that they still look the team to beat, just they don't look as invincible as they did a few weeks ago. When everyone was talking about them having the league stitched up by Christmas.
Arsenal are the bottlers of the league, Every year they promise so much and fail to deliver. They lack the constancy and the fight to grind out results when they don't play well. They have no characters in that dressing room. Roy Keane was right when he called them the Selfie squad. Too many guys concerned with looking the part without having the stomach to play the part. Yes they will be contend for the title this year but I guarantee if we finish second we will finish above Arsenal.
28 Sep 2015 19:15:39
Shappy
City will beat everyone when their quarter of Silva, Aguero, Silva and Company play. Take 2 out of that quartet and they struggle. Their 2 losses are a bit deceiving as the Spurs loss was a joke of a referring debacle that also had Mangala out.They battered Westham and the score is far from who was by far the better team.
My predictions are as follows: We lose at Emirates, get a draw at Everton, Coin toss with city depending on who is fit on their side and also ours and will beat Palace. If Demichelis plays due to injuries to their CB then I give us a 75% chance to beat them.
I agree with Jred, Arsenal will get better and almost as capable as city in terms of going on a big run of games winning. They are not bottlers just that they have not had the team to win the PL but if city falters, they are my pick.
I am not writing us off but hard to gauge our team until I see us play the top clubs. I would take a draw with arsenal right now.
28 Sep 2015 19:54:08
gcu
i think the fact we are away against cska before the city match and city have a home game could be an issue
28 Sep 2015 20:18:02
Jred
Oh idid not think of that tie. That does make it very tough, but if it is a tuesday cl game and sunday league game against city, then i reckon we are okay as that is plenty of time to get the boys back and rested to play.
Silva is on his way back i read and aguero is still not as sharp as he usually is. I do agree with you on Silva he creates havoc for everyone when he plays and such a talent.
28 Sep 2015 20:28:47
Shappy
Your assumption of City losing one is obviously at OT because they have Bournemouth, Newcastle and Norwich at home in October. They will win those games quite easily In my view. Then they have villa away and Liverpool and Southampton at home. They could be on some run if they get a result against united.
28 Sep 2015 20:35:54
gcu
i think it is a wednesday .
silva runs the game and dictates the games
28 Sep 2015 20:47:28
What makes you so fearful that we will lose to arsenal GCU?
28 Sep 2015 21:00:39
Angel
I think they are a very difficult team to play and have speed, great one touch passing, technical ability, toughness now and quite a few players that can hurt you.
They are starting to play a lot better and oddly for a team who has a good disciplinary record has had sending offs and lost games because of it. I watched the game against Chelsea and until the sending off only one team looked like they were going to win it and it was not Chelsea.
They are at home and I wish I could say we will win but my head says they will beat us.
29 Sep 2015 07:47:56
I agree they are a good team but not better than the one we played there last season. But we have improved considerably.
I've watched every one of arsenal's games this season and so far I see a team that is not quite there yet.
I believe again it's their CM and CB area that they are struggling with and the form that he is in I think that Martial will have a field day with Mertesacker. I believe we will once again try to dominate possession and arsenal will want to also come out and play at home. I don't fear them whatsoever at this part of the season as they have not hit their stride.
Against Leicester there were gaps all over and I feel that we can really hurt them as we have been so clinical of late.
That game against Chelsea was just typical arsenal, lots of promise but fail to deliver. LVG, I'm confident, will know exactly to how play against arsenal.
29 Sep 2015 08:40:45
I hope you are right but they are creating more scoring opportunities than any other team in the league and I am not surprised they scored 5 at Leicester and it was coming. I think they are capable of scoring in bunches and embarrassing teams. Offensively them and city are head and shoulder above everyone else in terms of their quality of build up play and creating chances.
I am curious to see how we handle Walcot's runs as i think he will be pull our centre backs all over the place and blind might get exposed for his lack of pace and not even sure Smalling can stay with him. Ramsey is due a big game too.
I hope you are right and i am wrong but not betting anything on this game.
29 Sep 2015 08:48:19
The game against Chelsea was not about promise and failure to deliver which is valid if it was 11 against 11 but about a sending off that changed the whole game.
They finished ahead of last year and were the best team in the league January onwards. This is very good team and people dismissing them because is odd to say the least.
it is an a very interesting league table at the moment and a couple of bad results seems to drop teams down and bring other teams into it. The good news is teams like Everton, Spurs, Liverpool are going to take points off each other in October as well. Chelsea should surge up the table as they have a decent run of games in October.
29 Sep 2015 09:11:53
I am not dismissing them whatsoever in fact I as always Arsenal will come good and be extremely hard to beat but right now they are not quite at that point. It's probably the best time to play them.
GCU, honestly I have never quite rated walcott but he seems to be playing better at CF. For me he is to hit an miss, more miss to be honest. I think the intelligence of our CBs is the most important thing. I worry for Blind more if he has to face a Lukaku/Beneteke/Gomis type forward.
I understand the sending off changed the game but for me it's just another arsenal game that didn't go their way. Trust me mate, I lived beside that stadium for 3 years, some of my best pals are arsenal fans and it's the same old story all the time with them.
I really think we will set up extremely well again and I'd back Martial to have a big impact. Did you catch Neville's analysis on him? short as it was but very good. He is a strong boy, made kaboul (the beast) look like a rag doll on more than one occasion.
29 Sep 2015 09:45:03
12/12 for me .
29 Sep 2015 09:56:07
Will be looking forward to Sunday and taking the afternoon off to watch Everton/Liverpool and then our game.
The mersey side derby should be cracker of a game too with Everton in good form and Liverpool having sturridge back gives them some bite.
Both games will provide some clues to how the year might turn out. I am betting Everton to win.
29 Sep 2015 10:09:37
Yep Sunday will be good, had a bit of luck last night with everton, stuck a tenner on them when 2-0 down. Nice touch